Definition
Probabilities get inferred from the most vivid or recent headlines instead of representative samples.
Example
After a run of hawkish central-bank headlines, a trader becomes convinced that rate hikes will persist despite underlying data showing disinflation and weakening growth. The vividness of the commentary outweighs the broader macro signal.
Cognitive Driver
The mind retrieves information that is recent, emotionally charged, or heavily repeated. This ease of recall becomes mistaken for importance or frequency. Salient narratives override more representative--but less vivid--data.
Market Expression
Trades lean toward themes dominating the news cycle. Risks tied to less visible drivers (positioning, liquidity, distribution tails) are underweighted. Market participants chase attention-grabbing stories while structural indicators fade into the background.
Trigger Conditions
- High media saturation around a single theme
- Policy meetings, geopolitical events, or crisis narratives
- Markets driven by headline momentum
- Large one-off events that generate emotional salience
- Limited access to long-range or cross-market datasets
Diagnostic Markers
- Rationale heavily references headlines or recent stories
- Long-term data omitted from decision notes
- Conviction rises after exposure to dramatic news coverage
- Underweighting of statistical baselines and historical analogues
- Sensitivity to information volume rather than information quality
Cost Profile
- Overreaction to highly publicised risks
- Underreaction to slow-moving or less-visible shifts
- Whipsaw positioning as narratives intensify or fade
- Weak connection between conviction and underlying probability
- Inefficient allocation due to spotlight-driven decision-making
Differentiation From Adjacent Biases
- Not recency bias: availability is about salience and memorability, not simply temporal proximity.
- Not representativeness: availability is about ease of recall; representativeness is about similarity to mental stereotypes.
- Not confirmation bias: availability doesn't filter evidence by thesis but by vividness.
Corrective Lens
Force decision notes to include long-range datasets, base-rate statistics, and alternative scenarios. Evaluate headlines in the context of distributional history rather than emotional impact. Use structured prompts that require justification from non-salient data sources to dilute the influence of highly visible narratives.